|
 |
 |
等級(jí)： 管理員
頭銜：產(chǎn)通社中國(guó)首席代表
貼子：43
PR：305
產(chǎn)通幣：148
注冊(cè)：2005/9/5 |
|
| 第 1 樓 |
|
 CNN預(yù)測(cè)2012年十大科技趨勢(shì)_觸控技術(shù)、語(yǔ)音控制、社交手勢(shì)等榜上有名 |
美國(guó)CNN網(wǎng)絡(luò)版發(fā)表了Pete Cashmore先生的文章，對(duì)2012年的十大科技趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)，觸控技術(shù)、語(yǔ)音控制、社交手勢(shì)等熱門技術(shù)均榜上有名。
從平板電腦的持續(xù)熱銷到團(tuán)購(gòu)行業(yè)的瘋狂，以及互聯(lián)網(wǎng)IPO的回歸，2011年已經(jīng)成為科技行業(yè)的轉(zhuǎn)型之年。
變革的步伐十分迅速，書店、視頻租賃連鎖、報(bào)紙等傳統(tǒng)行業(yè)也以超乎想象的速度衰落。數(shù)字時(shí)代的發(fā)展可謂一日千里，因此對(duì)2012年做出預(yù)測(cè)基本屬于瞎猜。不過，通過對(duì)今年下半年的觀察，我們至少也可以對(duì)明年年初的發(fā)展做出一些猜測(cè)。
以下就是我對(duì)2012年科技行業(yè)創(chuàng)新的一些預(yù)測(cè)：
1、觸控計(jì)算
新的輸入方式將主宰2012年的趨勢(shì)。iPad等平板電腦或許將成為臺(tái)式機(jī)和筆記本電腦的優(yōu)秀候選品，但我相信，它們的作用不止于此：還將成為既有產(chǎn)品的替代品。正如命令行讓位于圖形界面一樣，鼠標(biāo)也將被觸控屏取代。
這一信號(hào)非常明顯：作為兩款最新的桌面操作系統(tǒng)，Windows 8和Mac OS X Lion都從同門移動(dòng)系統(tǒng)中引入了大量功能。從本質(zhì)上講，這些新界面都是把觸控界面的元素移植到傳統(tǒng)的桌面環(huán)境中。
假以時(shí)日，這半步將變成完整的一步，而移動(dòng)操作系統(tǒng)將占據(jù)主導(dǎo)。2012年底前，這種轉(zhuǎn)型無(wú)法完成，但我們將會(huì)逐步深入，而使用電腦鼠標(biāo)的時(shí)間或許會(huì)越來越短。
2、社交手勢(shì)
在社交媒體領(lǐng)域，社交手勢(shì)似乎將會(huì)成為2012年的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)性趨勢(shì)。今年9月由Facebook發(fā)布的“無(wú)障礙分享”(frictionless sharing)功能，使得用戶無(wú)需點(diǎn)擊按鈕即可與好友分享媒體內(nèi)容。只要批準(zhǔn)了一款相關(guān)應(yīng)用，你所聽過、讀過和看過的內(nèi)容都會(huì)自動(dòng)發(fā)布到資料頁(yè)面中。
如果你在Facebook的News Feed信息流中看過Spotify或Social Reader等應(yīng)用，你肯定已經(jīng)發(fā)現(xiàn)了這些功能。
這一趨勢(shì)對(duì)于社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)非常有意義：Facebook已經(jīng)擁有8億用戶，因此增速勢(shì)必要放緩。但如果能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)分享活動(dòng)自動(dòng)化，F(xiàn)acebook的內(nèi)容數(shù)量將會(huì)加速增長(zhǎng)。然而，還有一個(gè)重要問題：用戶可能會(huì)厭惡這些自動(dòng)分享功能，并對(duì)相關(guān)應(yīng)用持懷疑態(tài)度。
3、NFC(近場(chǎng)通訊)和移動(dòng)支付
移動(dòng)支付明年可能會(huì)全面發(fā)展。我們今年已經(jīng)看到很多重要的移動(dòng)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新，包括可以讓任何人接受信用卡付款的移動(dòng)支付服務(wù)Square。
2012年將是NFC年。NFC使得手機(jī)可以替代信用卡：只要將配備NFC芯片的手機(jī)在信用卡讀卡器附近晃一下，即可自動(dòng)付款。據(jù)測(cè)算，到2013年，五分之一的手機(jī)都將配備NFC芯片。這一領(lǐng)域的早期競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者包括谷歌錢包、Visa錢、美國(guó)運(yùn)通的Serve以及ISIS。
4、超越iPad
如果觸控計(jì)算是未來的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)，那么iPad必然稱王。然而iPad已經(jīng)在2011年末面臨了嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn)：我此前就曾預(yù)測(cè)，亞馬遜Kindle Fire明年的銷量將超越iPad。為什么？很簡(jiǎn)單，iPad賣499美元，Kindle Fire僅售199美元。
亞馬遜的優(yōu)勢(shì)并不僅限于價(jià)格，該公司還擁有完整的電影、圖書、電視和其他媒體的內(nèi)容商店。對(duì)平板電腦而言，硬件本身的確不容忽視，但內(nèi)容絕對(duì)至關(guān)重要：由于能夠?yàn)镵indle Fire提供大量媒體內(nèi)容，因此將吸引眾多用戶。
為什么要由一款設(shè)備構(gòu)成整個(gè)的趨勢(shì)呢？隨著iPad競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的崛起，內(nèi)容廠商、分銷商，甚至應(yīng)用開發(fā)商也將擁有一個(gè)全新的平臺(tái)來推廣自己的產(chǎn)品。的確，Kindle Fire采用了谷歌Android操作系統(tǒng)，但亞馬遜的Android與其他Android平板電腦有著很大的不同，因此無(wú)論是用戶還是應(yīng)用開發(fā)者都不會(huì)認(rèn)為這是“又一款A(yù)ndroid設(shè)備”，而是會(huì)將它當(dāng)做一個(gè)全新的平臺(tái)來看待。
5、電視無(wú)處不在
這是否意味著你可以隨時(shí)隨地觀看自己喜愛的電視節(jié)目？恐怕沒那么快。
有線電視公司制定了一個(gè)狡猾的計(jì)劃：他們?cè)试S你通過上網(wǎng)設(shè)備觀看電視直播，而且可以點(diǎn)播電影和電視節(jié)目，但前提是保留有線電視賬號(hào)。Dish Network、時(shí)代華納和康卡斯特(Comcast)都推出了這種服務(wù)。
從2010年開始，“電視無(wú)處不在”的說法便甚囂塵上，但這在當(dāng)時(shí)看來顯然言之過早。不過，隨著平板電腦的崛起，“掌上電視”的需求顯然越來越高。
6、語(yǔ)音控制
這一趨勢(shì)在2012年全面騰飛的可能性不算太大。iPhone 4S提供的Siri語(yǔ)音助理服務(wù)提供了非常新穎的功能，只要通過語(yǔ)音控制即可發(fā)送短信、創(chuàng)建備忘錄，并搜索互聯(lián)網(wǎng)。這或許將成為語(yǔ)音控制趨勢(shì)的開端。
語(yǔ)音控制的確已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)多年。然而效果一直不夠精確。Siri以及與之類似的產(chǎn)品定義了一個(gè)全新的時(shí)代，使得我們可以與移動(dòng)設(shè)備進(jìn)行“溝通”。其他廠商可能也會(huì)陸續(xù)跟進(jìn)。不僅如此，蘋果可能還會(huì)用語(yǔ)音控制來代替電視遙控器。
7、空間手勢(shì)
其他的輸入方式也已經(jīng)取得了進(jìn)展。例如，由微軟Kinect引領(lǐng)的空間手勢(shì)已經(jīng)受到了廣泛歡迎。就像電影《少數(shù)派報(bào)告》中的場(chǎng)景一樣，只需要在空中揮一揮手，就可以控制電子設(shè)備。
得益于眾多黑客，Kinect已經(jīng)可以兼容其他平臺(tái)，這一輸入方式明年將被應(yīng)用于更多設(shè)備。
8、第二屏幕體驗(yàn)
“第二屏幕體驗(yàn)”是電影和電視行業(yè)高管近期鼓吹的一個(gè)詞匯，指的是能夠聽懂你正在觀看的電視內(nèi)容，并為你展示相關(guān)節(jié)目和電影的應(yīng)用，主要適用于iPad。由于有很多一邊看電視一邊使用平板電腦或手機(jī)的用戶，因此這一技術(shù)完全有能力提升互動(dòng)體驗(yàn)。
迪士尼已經(jīng)為《獅子王》和《小鹿斑比》等電影設(shè)計(jì)了第二屏幕應(yīng)用，而很多電視臺(tái)也提供了類似的服務(wù)：我們預(yù)計(jì)2012年將會(huì)出現(xiàn)更多類似的產(chǎn)品。
9、柔性屏幕
就我個(gè)人而言，已經(jīng)等不及要使用柔性屏幕了：這種可以彎折的全新界面可以通過彎曲手機(jī)和平板電腦來實(shí)現(xiàn)放大、縮小等功能。
諾基亞和三星都透露將在2012年推出配備可彎折屏幕的手機(jī)。然而，真正令人振奮的在于，手機(jī)可以做得像紙一樣薄，而且可以卷起來放在口袋里不過，這恐怕還要等上幾年。
10、HTML5
最后一個(gè)趨勢(shì)則是HTML5，也就是第五版HTML標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。開發(fā)者可以借此創(chuàng)建更豐富、互動(dòng)性更強(qiáng)的應(yīng)用。
這個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)究竟有何作用？隨著開發(fā)者疲于為Android、iOS和Windows Phone等各類操作系統(tǒng)開發(fā)應(yīng)用，HTML5將提供一個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)，幫助他們實(shí)現(xiàn)“一次編寫，隨處可用”。
Adobe取消移動(dòng)版Flash的消息將加快HTML5的崛起速度，這意味著一種重要的移動(dòng)視頻和應(yīng)用開發(fā)工具將會(huì)消失，而HTML5則會(huì)填補(bǔ)這一空缺。對(duì)于消費(fèi)者而言，這意味著所有的設(shè)備都將擁有更為豐富的應(yīng)用和體驗(yàn)。
簡(jiǎn)而言之，2012年將通過觸摸和語(yǔ)音控制為各類設(shè)備提供新的互動(dòng)方式，內(nèi)容分享流程也將更為簡(jiǎn)潔，移動(dòng)支付將會(huì)發(fā)生變革，而網(wǎng)絡(luò)應(yīng)用也將大幅增加，更不用說還有數(shù)以百計(jì)我們尚未想到的創(chuàng)新。
查詢進(jìn)一步信息，請(qǐng)?jiān)L問 http://edition.cnn.com/2011/12/19/tech/innovation/top-tech-trends-2012/index.html。
-----------------------------------------
The Top 10 tech trends for 2012 By Pete Cashmore, Special to CNN
December 19, 2011 -- Updated 1756 GMT (0156 HKT) | Filed under: Innovations
From the continuing rise of tablet devices to the daily-deals craze and the return of the Internet IPO, 2011 has been a transformative year for technology. -- (CNN)
The pace of change has become blisteringly fast, with traditional industries -- bookstores, video-rental chains, newspapers -- crumbling more quickly than we could have imagined.
Predicting what will happen in 2012, therefore, is a shot in the dark: A year is virtually a lifetime in the digital era. And yet we can at least make a guess at what will happen in the early part of next year simply by looking at the trends that are shaping the latter half of this year.
Here's my best estimate of some of the innovation we'll see in 2012:
1. Touch computing
New input methods will be the dominant trend of 2012. Tablet computers such as the iPad might seem like a nice alternative to desktop and laptop computers, but I believe they're more than that:
They're replacements. Just as the command line (remember that?) gave way to graphical user interfaces, so the mouse will be superseded by touchscreens.
The signs are obvious: Windows 8 and Mac OS X Lion, the latest desktop operating systems, borrow heavy from their mobile counterparts. These new interfaces essentially impose a touchscreen-inspired interface over the traditional desktop environment.
Over time, this half-step will become a whole one, and mobile operating systems will dominate. The transition won't be complete by the end of 2012, but we'll be much further down the path, and using computer mice much less often.
2. Social gestures
In the social media realm, social gestures appear to be the leading trend of 2012. Launched by Facebook in September, this so-called "frictionless sharing" functionality removes the need to click a button to share media with your friends. Instead, everything you listen to, read or watch is automatically posted to your profile once you approve the relevant app.
If you've seen apps such as Spotify or Social Reader in your Facebook news feed, you're already aware of these features.
The trend makes sense for social networks: With 800 million people already on Facebook, its growth is bound to slow. But if sharing becomes automatic, the volume of content on Facebook will grow at an accelerated pace. There's a big problem, however: Users may be "creeped out" by all this automated sharing of their Web activity and grow suspicious of the apps using it.
3. NFC and mobile payments
Google Wallet, Google's mobile-payment system, may become more widespread in 2012.Next year is likely to be the year when mobile payments blossom. While we've seen a great deal of innovation in mobile payments technology this year -- including the success of Square's iPhone dongle, allowing anyone to accept credit card payments -- 2012 is the year of NFC.
What's that, you ask? Near Field Communication essentially lets you replace your credit cards with your phone: Wave an NFC-enabled phone near the credit card reader in a store (or taxi cab), and the money is deducted from your account.
By 2013, 1 in 5 cellphones are expected to be NFC-equipped. Early contenders include Google Wallet, Visa Wallet, Serve (by American Express) and ISIS.
4. Beyond the iPad
If touch computing is the future, then the iPad is surely king. And yet the iPad came up against serious competition in the latter part of 2011: As I wrote previously, I expect the new Amazon Kindle Fire to outsell the iPad in 2012. Why? Simply put, the iPad costs $499 while the Fire costs $199.
Amazon's advantages don't stop at the price point, however: The company owns an entire content store of movies, e-books, TV shows and other media. With tablet devices, the hardware is somewhat important but the content available for the device is absolutely critical: With plenty of media available for the Fire right away, it's an appealing proposition.
Why does one device constitute an entire trend? Well, as a true competitor to the iPad emerges, content producers, distributors and even app developers may have an entirely new platform on which to push their wares. (And yes, the Kindle Fire does indeed run Google's Android operating system, but Amazon's version is so unlike other Android tablets that neither users nor app developers will perceive it as "yet another Android device" -- it's a whole new platform.)
5. TV Everywhere
So you thought you'd be able to watch all your favorite shows online and get rid of your cable subscription for good? Not so fast!
The cable companies have a cunning plan: They'll let you watch live TV, plus on-demand movies and TV shows, on your connected devices if you keep your cable subscription. Dish Network, Time Warner and Comcast are among those offering the service.
TV Everywhere has been buzzed about since 2010, of course, and could be a dud -- but the rise of tablet devices would seem to create increased demand for a "TV in your hands."
6. Voice control
Here's another trend that's got a moderate chance of taking off in 2012: Voice control.
Siri, the voice-control feature in the iPhone 4S, may spread to other devices.The novelty of Siri on the iPhone 4S -- which allows you to send texts, create reminders, search the Web and much more using just your voice -- may be the start of a new trend in voice controlled devices.
Surely voice control has been around for years? Yes, but it wasn't very accurate.
Siri and its ilk define a new era in which we talk, and our devices understand -- often on the first attempt. Other device makers will likely follow suit. What's more, Apple may use voice control to replace the TV remote.
7. Spatial gestures
Other input methods are gaining traction too: Microsoft's Kinect, for instance, has given rise to interfaces that use spatial gestures. Just like in "Minority Report," your devices can be controlled simply by waving your hands in the air.
Thanks to the many innovators who have hacked Kinect to work with other platforms, we may see more devices using this input method next year.
8. Second-screen experiences
"Second-screen experiences" is a buzz-phase among TV and movie execs these days. It refers to apps (mainly on the iPad) that listen to the audio output of your TV and display content related to the show or movie you're watching. The chances are that you already use your tablet computer or phone while watching TV, so there's ample opportunity to make the viewing experience a more interactive one.
Disney already has second-screen apps for movies such as "The Lion King" and "Bambi," while multiple TV networks have similar offerings: We can expect many, many more to be released in 2012.
9. Flexible screens
Personally, I just can't wait for flexible screens: These awesome new bendable interfaces will let you zoom in, zoom out and scroll around a page simply by twisting your phone or tablet.
Nokia and Samsung have both hinted they may release phones with bendable displays in 2012. The really exciting stuff, however -- like paper-thin devices that roll up to fit in your pocket -- is still years away.
10. HTML5
Can I squeeze in one more trend? It's HTML5 -- the fifth iteration of the HTML standard -- and it lets developers create richer, more interactive applications than ever.
Why does this matter? As developers tire of building applications for every operating system out there -- from Android to iOS to Windows Phone and beyond -- HTML5 offers the opportunity to build an app once and have it work everywhere.
The rise of HTML5 is bound to be accelerated by a recent revelation: Adobe is killing off Flash for mobile devices, meaning one of the primary methods of serving videos and rich applications on mobile phones is about to disappear. HTML5 will fill that gap. For us as consumers, that means richer applications and experiences on all our devices.
In short, 2012 is all about new ways to interact with our devices through touch and voice control, new lightweight ways to share content, a revolution in mobile payments and a plethora of rich Web applications -- not to mention the hundreds of new innovations that we've yet to dream up. I can't wait.
Editor's note:
Pete Cashmore is founder and CEO of Mashable.com, a popular blog about tech news and digital culture. He writes regular columns about social media and tech for CNN.com. |
|  |
| 產(chǎn)品信息通訊社（365PR）是全球B2B品牌推廣開拓者，以“傳播產(chǎn)品，報(bào)道企業(yè)”為天職，立足PageReader軟件平臺(tái)，為科技企業(yè)、新銳媒體、互聯(lián)網(wǎng)創(chuàng)新者、展覽機(jī)構(gòu)、公關(guān)公司提供富有成效的信息支持和資本投資服務(wù)，是全球新銳媒體的“共同編輯部”。 |
|
|
還沒呢
[
2012-1-4 18:5
新手上路